Anyone else expecting a big surge in popularity of SKS's soon?

[KILLDOZER]

I've been gradually shaping my toy collection with an eye towards future bans and restrictions, for years now. Though I'm not fully divested, I've seriously lightened my holdings in assault-rifles, become a big revolver fan, gotten into lever and bolt guns a little, picked up another pump shotgun, and gradually moved towards semi-auto pistols with sub-10 round capacities (like the Shield 9, 1911,etc.). You get the idea.
I'm sure some will label this as capitulating to the enemy, but in the real world, most of us aren't inclined to live our lives under the threat of midnight no-knock raids and felony convictions, and since I'm absolutely positive there ain't no Big Revolution-Part Deux coming, I believe this course of action to be rational and prudent. YMMV.
Anyway, getting to the point, assuming the lunatics (aka ''Progressives'') don't manage to nix the 2nd Amendment entirely, we're very likely looking at things like magazine capacity restrictions in the not too-distant future.
I'm reading that SKS's (with the fixed 10-rd mags) are already going for much higher prices in California, than they are in other parts of the country, and this is directly attributed to their having these capacity restrictions.
I personally have been thinking for a while now that SKS's are going to see a big surge is desirability and value in coming months and years, in the rest of the country.
As much as I love AK's and AR's, I don't feel under-gunned with a nice SKS. We could do a hella lot worse if that's the best we get left with.
Comments?

[montigre]

I am an owner of SKSs and the black plastic guns, so I base this opinion on a little bit of personal experience and not just conjecture.  I'm just getting back into shooting following a prolonged layoff and personally feel the upswing in SKS popularity is primarily due to the fact that the "fad stage" of the evil black gun has about run its course.  As a result, people are starting to realize that for whatever their reasons for owning semi auto rifles/carbines are, the SKS platform will provide them with more overall firepower for the buck than their modular descendants. 

ARs and AKs are great for up close and personal situations and they are light enough to tote around without thinking twice about the added pounds, but for longer-distance hunting, survival needs, or the feared by some SHTF scenarios, the SKS, in my opinion, would be a much more practical tool.

If I were going to be dropped off in the middle of Alaska today and was told I could take only one gun, it would definitely be one of my SKSs instead of my AR.   

[KILLDOZER]

Thanks! Nearly all fair points that I won't argue with. But, I would dispute the point about the source and pervasiveness of the SKS's popularity. The reports I've seen of them currently going for $600 out in California, largely attribute these prices to people fleeing towards the highest-cap semi-auto legally allowed, not because of a passing fad with popular black rifles. If this were actually the case, we'd be seeing these prices all over the country. The prices I've been seeing on SKS's (and I follow the used market fairly closely) have been steadily falling over the past year+, not going up.
I've seen several very decent SKS's in this part of the country going for as low as $275, and they're commonly priced around $300-350, and often still sitting around a good while. I've seen nice Russians in the past year for $400 and less. (Oddly, it seems the ones priced the most ridiculously are the ones from guys that have goobered them up with tacti-cool junk that no one wants, and lost the original stock and magazine, that everyone does want).
But, as I mentioned, I believe as the threat of largescale mag restrictions inevitably looms, I think more and more people will see the practicality of having one of these archaic battle axes !!

[montigre]

I see you point, but you also have to consider the ages of the people who are stilll stockpiling the AR/AK types and goobering up the old war horses in favor of adding scopes with night vision, laser sights, plastic rails, etc against those who are purchasing them because they are simply more suited for the intended usage.  There is a qualitative usage difference between those who are more practical versus tacticool....

I was brought up by my father and grand father with the idea of one shot one kill--so, in that light, I personally have no need for 30+ round mags, and many I know have the same feelings.  My HD weapon(s) is/are only 10 rounders and I do not plan to get larger cap mags--if I cannot diffuse a home invasion situation in 1-3 shots, then I am using the wrong tool for my level of experience. 

Same is true for my recreational/target use.  I don't go out to the range to splatter a target with 500-700 rounds at a time, that is just a waste of money, and time in my eyes.  What is the practical usefulness of rifle mags that are greater than 20 rounds?  Or pistol mags with more than 10-15 rounds (unless you're shooting in competition with frequent mag changes)?  Just more weight that could become dislodged in a very inconvenient time or extra loaded bullets you can lose track of when your adrenaline is pumping through the roof......

I've studied the prices of SKSs, Garands, Springfield 1903s, and Mosins  climbing very steadily over the past decade (yes with occasional dips thrown in), but those lower capacity semi auto rifles and carbines that could easily be purchased for $100-200 even 5 years ago are today very easily selling for $400-500++ across the country. 

What you're likely seeing is some of the normal spotty panic buying that has taken place before every major election since the mid 90s and not a national trend that you can bet the house on.       

[Greasemonkey]

I don't see a big surge or at least any thing out of the normal on SKSs. Everything has gone up, bolt actions, hell you can hardly touch a fricken Mosin for less than 200 bucks now, a plain jane M19/30. The SKS takes a back door to other weapons including any high cap weapons. I live in Virginia, a fairly decent state in regards to gun laws, good luck finding a SKS for 275. Not because of laws, it's because of the money rolling around in the northern part of the state and the rest of the state suffers. Your avg. plain jane SKS of any make starts in 400-425 range, even a tackykool with the does this mag make me look fat starts at 600 bucks. Like any commodity supply and demand dictate price.

The Ar crowd isn't going anywhere soon, as long as they keep pumping them out, finding ways around laws and stipulations, NY state is perfect example, you can still get one there with their laws, people will keep buying. Same thing with Aks, it's the draw to more is better, some people gotta have a minigun belt hanging outta their Ruger 10/22.

Now you mention mag bans, one thing to consider, what happens when the powers that be come up and say any and all semi auto operated weapons will be limited to 5 rounds, regardless of make, age, design, caliber, it will hold no more than a conventional bolt action rifle. It's just something to consider, Canada has a variation of this law, New Zealand your allowed 7 rounds in a magazine, now think.... technically a Garand holds 8

I have a whole mass of stuff, until they say it's not legal I won't sweat it, I'm not going to play the get it before it's gone game, pay 5 prices for a 1 price gun. I'm gonna hang on to them, not because "I'm a rebel" there is always the chance nothing happens. The fear is driving the market as a whole as it has done in the past 8 years, and as it gets closer to Hillary hammer time, prices will go up quicker.  Another thing driving is, surplus guns are almost gone or done, their stores and supplies almost dry after years of import, it was not a bottomless pit of them.

[running-man]

I'll play.  Here's my take.

Aside from pockets of the country like CT and CA where things are noticeably out of whack, All SKS prices have had a slow and pretty predictable rise over the past 16 years.  Availability of new import batches can lower the slope on the supply curve, but in the end the supply will one day run out.  Prices can appear to be stagnant as long as imports keep replenishing supplies, but once the imports dry up and the primary sales shops run out of stock, prices necessarily increase.  The recent influx of Chinese type 56s has helped keep a lid on things such that they haven't run away like some of the other markets have (think Russian SKS45 or even M1 Carbines).  Like GM says, we are rapidly approaching the end of the surplus gravy train.  The fact is that there are not many surplus military firearms out there that meet the guidlines for importability (readily suitable for sporting purposes, comply with the GCA/NFA, etc.)  Anymore, being surplus military guns means that they have to be C&R to even have a shot at getting imported.  Many firearms (Russian SKS45, SVT-40, PM) which are C&R and would otherwise be eligible for importation are non-importable because of the VRA which won't be amended anytime soon, if ever.  If anything, there will likely be new VRAs signed once the TPP or European trade agreements are signed.

I don't plan my collection around what may or may not be allowed in 2035.  My collection is not a retirement account, I collect because I enjoy the firearms themselves.  I'm not typically concerned with future appreciation when deciding what I should buy.  People do collect for various reasons though, so I do understand that investment / future appreciation is one of the reasons as is trying to get ahead of any bans and grandfathering in their purchases.  As for future restrictions, I think it's pure folly to try and keep one step ahead of an irrational bureaucracy.  In other words, if the Australian total confiscation model is the goal for progressives in Washington and in many state legislatures, would it just be best to sell everything I have right now if I'm convinced that this is where we are headed?  It's one thing to be prudent, but I think we'd all agree that this is putting the cart way before the horse.

I think people should buy what they want now because it's available and you can afford it, buy what they want now because they think it might not be available in a few years (either because of laws or simple surplus firearm supply deficiencies) or buy what they want now because they think it will be much more expensive in few years.

[Greasemonkey]

Even though everything is rising, I also think everything will hit a price cap. Every market displays this trait, there comes a point when people simply won't pay anymore. The point where they just stop rising and level off and stay right in a certain range, as an example a Russian or Albanian, these hang in a general price range, maybe very slowly gaining value. The big shifts in the cap locked items come when the market as a whole shifts, then prices will adjust to suit and again hover in to a set range. Now some of this can be driven by supply and demand, usually on these examples the S&D is pretty much even, holding prices steady or showing very small gains.

Another thing that effects the overall prices is hoarders, slow flippers and modders. Slow flippers, these are the same who buy and buy while prices are low, then when it all goes up, they dump in the middle of a frenzy adding to the price increases, by putting their items out at higher than current market value, fear adds in to this drive and they profit and cause the market to raise some. The modders are the one you see buy up the decent bottom end stuff, throw some kinda goofy tackykool stuff at it and dump it for 3 times what they modded it for, it's usually preceded by a list of oh so great parts, their normal disclaimer of I have never shot it and it must go due to some corny stupid reason. This can cause the market to adjust slightly also, simply due to greed. Greed or just plain 'ol capitalism, someone sees a bubba Chinese sell for 600, someone else thinks they can get 5-550 for a stock Chinese, if the stock Chinese sells, the next person tries, and the next person tries until the market won't budge or adjusts, basically they try to drive the market higher.

The gun market is very much like the stock market, everyone focuses on one specific sector like Retail, Industrials and Utilities, or American surplus, Aks and Mosins, one sector can raise sky high and another sector get flushed down the bowl, and like the stock market, buying or selling based on future speculation can make you, break you or just leave you standing there like.....uh, duh  .

[montigre]

I find myself siding with RM on this issue.     I've accidentally become somewhat of a collector, but by no means is it to pad my retirement or strike it big in resale.  I too really like the wood and steel rifles and carbines of historical significance.  The smell of an old gun is reminiscent of the smell of a good old book and evokes the same types of emotions.

Also, not very many are going to get rich collecting old war horses; I cannot see a military rifle trading for the same price a set of Purdey percussion dueling pistols may bring--they were simply not built to the same standards or for the same purposes.  But finding them and collecting them it is fun, enjoyable, and they are a blast to shoot--and can be done so without fear of damaging an item worth in excess of $40+ grand. 

I still do not believe there is a predictable upsurge in price based on any single denominator.  The market has and will continue to ebb and flow until it is eventually used up.  When that happens, it is anyone's guess what the outcome may be.  Meanwhile, I will continue to take my "gems" to the range, take them out to clean and admire,  and enjoy extending their life until it is time to pass them along to the next person for their enjoyment.

[KILLDOZER]

Lots of interesting points brought up. Lemme say that I didn't mean to imply that I expected SKS demand to get to such a frenzied level that we'll be able to retire off them !! And of course i realize there are myriad factors invloved in the price spikes and drops of any given commodity, and exact predictions are elusive at best.
That being said, we are gifted with things like logic, common sense and historical observation, and we often can make some predictions in trends.
It's clear that virtually every gun owner and his brother have long been preparing for price hikes and shortages come November '16. We've seen it several times in recent years, and it's quite reasonable to expect it again.
Also, while it's fair to point out that the antis have so far been unuccessful in their numerous attempts at largescale firearm restrictions, the fact is that we are sailing into a judicial/political "perfect storm" , one that we would be naive in the extreme to ignore or dismiss.
Given the state of the SCOTUS, and the likelyhood of another Clinton presidency, it's impossible to overestimate the precariousness of American gun rights.
Anyway, the thrust of my point was that, given the looming realities, I think it's very possible that lower-cap weapons, and even things like 10-rd mags for Glock pistols, may soon experience a rush in demand, and ensuing spike in price, and was curious if anyone else saw it this way.
Regardless, time will soon tell .

[Greasemonkey]

Exactly, time will tell..

As it gets closer one side "A" will do the chicken little dance, run around buying up everything swearing the sky is falling, the other side "B" will sit back watch the mayhem, silently waiting, saving and watching.

I think the system will have to purge the high cap stuff before the rush for low cap starts, by then, a large percentage will be broke from the rush to swoop up all the high cap stuff. During the last 2 sprees, I even heard people were refinancing their homes to buy stuff in bulk. These side "A" people came out on the back end afterwards stuck with all the over priced stuff after the market calmed. This is where the side "B" will come out ahead, it became a buyers market, not a sellers market.

[KILLDOZER]

I think I follow and agree with all that  . I didn't post the OP as any kind of recommendation to anyone to go full-retard, scarfing up SKS's by the bushel, it was mostly just a rhetorical question about where the collective feels things might go.
In fact, I've long felt ( and publically argued) that we probably won't see  the crazy price-spikes and shortages of previous panics,  partly because so many people (the "side B" people you referenced) got burned on their $2000 AR's that were back to being worth $700 a year later, and, because so many people (and even companies) have spent the last couple years stocking up on ammo,mags,lowers, and rifles, in the hope of capitalizing on a future panic. I think the market is FULL of people that are stocked with all this stuff, just waiting to pounce, and it's going to backfire when all they do is help flood that market.
That's been my feeling,anyway (which sounds largely like the point you were making).
But despite all this, if we see a nationwide ban on magazines over 10-rds, and especially on weapons that readily accept them, I would think it nearly impossible for this NOT to have an upward influence on prices and demand of rifles like the SKS. That was pretty much my point/question here.

[Dannyboy53]

Given the state of the SCOTUS, and the likelihood of another Clinton presidency, it's impossible to overestimate the precariousness of American gun rights.

For me that statement is the bottom line KILLDOZER, politics is the deciding factor in all this for Mary & I as we are not Collectors. We don't have a lot of long guns or handguns nor do we plan on getting anymore (as much as I would love to) so price, tomorrow or next year, means nothing to us. We are preppers and do believe there are possibly some seriously hard times coming very soon so we stock food, med supplies, tools and ammunition among other things.

My biggest concern (and worst nightmare) is a Clinton Administration (and Supreme Court appointments) as she has said she will go after firearms...and with a vengeance I believe. So we will stock up on ammo until it is no longer possible to do so for whatever reason and hope it will be enough to last. We feel that with a Clinton Admin, there will be no ammo or very little at best for at least four years. I believe the ease with which we can get ammunition on line or off the shelf will disappear. If it does go down this way I feel prices will accordingly go up.

If it doesn't happen this way there is nothing lost for me, I simply won't have to buy groceries or cartridges for a while! 

[Greasemonkey]

And then there is always the dirty pool scenario.

Ok, now let look at another scenario which I think is more likely, say they don't ban high cap mags, you can have all the 3, 5, 10, 20 and 30 round mags ones little heart desires, instead they put a $5 dollar tax per round of ammunition, regardless if it .22 CB short or .600 Nitro Express, $5 dollars per round please. Now they did not technically trample anyone's 2nd amendment rights, you still have got your sidearm, carbine or long rifle with your big magazine, you still got your precious collectors rifle, your daddys shotgun or .30-30. Only now your 10 rd mag has a minimum of $50 worth in it, a 30rd has a minimum of $150 worth of ammo in it, even your pa's .30-30 has at least $25 worth in taxes in the tube. Our wonderful 13.99 box of CCI Blazer 9mm Luger is now $284 for a box of 50 under this new firearms tax, $13.99 for the box of ammo and $250 in taxes. Even reloading components are taxed, whats the one thing a reloader needs, primers, well each primer gets taxed, and this would even allow black powder shooters to join in the fun and be taxed.

Ammo supply tax could be easier than an out right gun, mag and weapons ban, almost as easy as controlling alcohol,, instead of an ABC store, you could have a federally run ATF/IRS ammo store. There is already a Firearms and Ammunition Excise Tax, all they would have to do is expand it to consumers. I think this has been tested during the last ammo shortage, how much will the public stand to pay....

How would taxing ammo be any different than what we are currently taxed on gasoline, tobacco, alcohol, food, and all the other taxes we don't see, ignore and or pay anyway?

And again, no one rights were technically infringed, everyone still has their weapons, their precious magazines, but now, you just can't afford to feed'em. Precious metals won't be wood and steel for a clunky 'ol broke down military surplus rifle or polymer and aluminium for say a tupperware AR, it won't even be silver or gold, the new precious metals will be brass, copper and lead.

[Dannyboy53]

Greasemonkey I'm glad you're not a liberal politician!    Things could just as easily go this way, in fact it would be much easier for the Regime to do this than to outright ban or seize firearms. Lots of members of Congress will NOT ban or seize all weapons, they have shown an aversion to that over the years. I believe it's because they fear the reaction of the gun owners.

I don't know if there will be a surge in SKS popularity but there doesn't seem to me to be much of a loss, not around here anyway!

[Greasemonkey]

Greasemonkey I'm glad you're not a liberal politician!

Me too     I can't lie that good, plus I believe in hard work to earn a honest living.

Its a logical solution.... there are in excess of 300 million guns in the US, they all need ammo.. Current produced ammo and imported ammo would be easier to track and control than trying to expect a fraction of those 300 million arms to be willingly handed over or try and go take them causing even more damage to our already f*cked up society, or even run the risk of deaths from possible uprisings or even an internal war. The ammo thats in the wild will become instant gold and going to the range and blasting away will all but cease, ammo will then be highly coveted and scarce after a while, then the only option is to pay the tax. For a hunter who shoots maybe a dozen rounds a year, it won't be much added expense, or have a hunting license that allows say, gives the hunter 10 rounds of say a non-military cailber discount. LEOs and military, if your on the clock, you can get all the practice shooting you want, if not on the clock, your ammo stays under the control of the local, state or fed armory, you can have the empty magazine containing holstered brick or club with a sling.

And that exactly what rifles and pistols become with out ammo for the most part, bricks and clubs, yeah, you got bayonets, you can roast marshmallows or weiners or whatever, but, I don't remember a report ever saying "crazed man goes on a bayonet attack" so they will be gracious and maybe let us keep them. 

A collectible weapon probably will still be collectible, most collectors don't shoot there prizes, how many North Korean SKSs you see getting hammered at the range, or how many Death's Head Lugers(Totenkoft) you see popping off rounds. The values for said collectible weapons won't really change for collectors, cause they don't shoot'em, and they are just as rare as they were before said ammo tax came around.

It's all up in the air....anything is possible and you can't discount anything.

[Dannyboy53]

Not a very encouraging prospect but it is what it is and we must learn to deal with it. In the mean time as I said, I'm going to keep stashing ammo until I can't anymore! 

[mike16]

and the comments made by that lunitic Ginsberg.

scarry or what?

been on board with the SKS for a very short time and among 4 gunshops in my AO. three had a total of 8 SKS for sale. every one sold in less than two weeks.

Is it taboo to point out that every one sold out right after the dallas sniper insanity.