Why Chinese SKS production halted for up to a year in 1960 or 1961

[Boris Badinov]

The combined effects of the Sino-Soviet split and a largely self-induced famine had very  drastic effects on Chinese trade, economy, and industry starting in 1960 and continuing until 1965-66. With 1961 being the most severe. In that year China's GDP dropped by nearly 30%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#Annual_GDP
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN
And huge losses in agricultural capital resulted in similar drops in imported natural resources required to keep industry moving--i.e. iron, steel, petroleum and heavy equipment.

As a result of severe economic and political effects of Mao's self induced famine and etsimated 30-60million people died.  And Mao's 2nd Five Year plan was very abruptly  terminated in  January 1960-- after only 3 years. China was forced into an economic reboot --referred to as "Agriculture First". During this period, heavy and light industry saw steep, imposed drops or halts in output.

It's entirely possible that all letter gun production occurred in 1959 and 1960. But the significant drop in annual production totals seen in the serial data indicate a very high likelihood that sks production was halted for at least a year-- and did not start up again in earnest --however modestly-- until 1962. 

Even without the historical context-- and there is a substantial amount of context both in scholarly articles and in FOIA CIA documents-- the serial data from 1958 to 1962 indicate a significant drop in SKS production.  A CIA assessment dated 1959 estimates Chinese sks output at 250,000 annually-- based on 1956-1958 production. Yet from 1959 thru 1963 the serial data indicate an annual production average of 110,000-125,000 rifles. With only 15,000 rifles (barely three weeks worth of full capacity production) in the 6th year/6mill serial range, it seems highly improbable that a halt in production did not happen. IMHO the 1961 totals and the 50-60% drop in average annual production from 1959-1963 are a huge smoking gun that there was a roughly year long halt to sks production in 1960 or 1961.

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80B01083A000100200023-8.pdf


Though none of the intelligence assessments and  scholarly, historical literature state outright that SKS production came to a halt, they do indicate that industry on the whole experienced idle periods in all sectors due various material shortages--food, fuel raw materials, etc-- which are required to keep industry running. And the literarture paint a very grim, detailed picture of what was happening in China-- particularly in 1960 and 1961-- when I suspect the halt in production occurred.


In my honest opinion, I believe that the failure of Mao's 2nd  Five Year Plan /Great Leap catastrophe and it's wide ranged of effects on every aspect of Chinese life -- and in particular sks production-- has gone largely ignored to the detriment of a fuller understanding within the sks collecting community of what the serial data has -- imho-- been telling us for nearly a decade.

I am eager to hear what any and all have to say on the subject. And though I have lost a lot of archived historical context due to a hard drive melt down, I have begun slowly to reconstitute a literature reference archive for this tumultuous period in Chinese history. 

[Boris Badinov]

Not only did Chinese steel production take a significant hit in 1960 and 1961:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2642114?read-now=1&refreqid=excelsior%3A733b487b51603a401d56883fc73ddb85&seq=7#page_scan_tab_contents



But, Soviet steel and iron imports to China dropped significantly in this period too:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/1035700?read-now=1&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

[Boris Badinov]

Place holder for more links to CIA assessments and historical literature ...

1.)  Special National Intelligence Estimate, N0. 13-61: THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN COMMUNIST CHINA.  (4 April 1961):
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0001098172.pdf

2.)   Sino-Soviet Economic Relations, 1959-1962. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
Vol. 349, Communist China and the Soviet Bloc (Sep., 1963), pp. 94-105 (12 pages)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1035700?read-now=1&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

[Loose}{Cannon]

Are you saying that China was somehow restricted to only acquiring iron and steel from Russia?