Hey Mike, is that 2025 Canadian Collector's guide posted from another website?  Do you have the link? I'd be interested in seeing the discussion surrounding it.

From the up-to-date database, I count 17 known prefix pairs for '58 letter K series carbines.  Assuming a ceiling of 10k guns per pair, that would equal 170k possible carbines from the known prefix pairs.  Of course there may be prefix pairs out there that have not been documented, which would increase the number, but it could also be that 10k per prefix pair is too high (indeed, I only see a single entry in the 9000's, 4 in the 8000's and most prefix pairs seem to plateau at around 6k or 7k) which would decrease the total number.

We took a light stab a prefix pair #'s for all years in the Breaking the Russian Cyrillic Prefix code thread, but the S/N data threads here at SKS-Files are only visible to Riflemen (100+ posts) or above.

This was done with AI tools to compile and cross reference and scrutinize findings. So please this was AI attempt to deep dive the “K” series within the context of the Canadian market. Parameters were put in to avoid anecdotes, heresy, and only data that is cited by multiple sources. It’s not perfect and far from correct. I use these to scrape any information or new data that is released to the internet.

Your estimates seem to be much more plausible. I’ll run a few more inquires with your insight and see what it can find.

I wouldn't take Poyer's 1958 production estimates too seriously. That particular collecting "guide" is the source of significant errors and unsubstantiated claims and conjecture. 

1958 Russian SKS “К” Letter Series

Canadian Collector’s Guide – Updated for 2025

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🗓️ Historical Context: The Final Chapter of Soviet SKS Production

The 1958 “К” Letter Series marks the final year of SKS production at the Tula Arsenal, following the letter-series transition that began in 1956:
   •   Д (1956) → И (1957) → К (1958)
   •   By 1958, SKS assembly at Tula had slowed dramatically, with most resources redirected to AKM production.
   •   According to Poyer (The SKS Carbine, 2022), fewer than 100,000 SKS rifles were produced in 1958, and the “К” series comprises the smallest and scarcest subset.

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🔍 Identification: “As-Issued” vs Refurbished

✅ As-Issued “К” Features
   •   Receiver: Small Tula star on receiver; no arsenal/date on dust cover.
   •   Serial: Matching five-digit number with Cyrillic “К” suffix.
   •   Finish: Deep blued finish, visible annealing colors on barrel near chamber.
   •   Stock:
   •   Most were laminated, but early examples were fitted with hardwood stocks — now extremely rare (under 10% of total 1958 rifles, per SKS-Files 2023 survey).
   •   Barrel: Chrome-lined with faint rainbow sheen; “Tula star” proof near chamber.

🚫 Refurb Clues
   •   Black enamel paint (“BBQ finish”) on metal.
   •   Electro-penciled serials (common in Canadian imports).
   •   Force-matched bolts, mismatched fonts, overstamps.
   •   “X” prefix or added shellac on stock.
   •   Staking distortion on bayonet screws, showing post-factory disassembly.

Refurbs were most often completed at Ukrainian (RPC) and East German (EG) depots before being exported or stored for reserve forces (Edwards, Soviet Small Arms of the Cold War, 2021).

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🇨🇦 Canadian Market: Imports, Rarity & Pricing

📦 Importation Context
   •   Roughly 1.5 million SKS rifles entered Canada from the early 1990s to early 2000s (per Library and Archives Canada FOIA).
   •   However, letter-series rifles made up a small fraction of these shipments. Most “К” series rifles in Canada today are refurbs or came across the U.S. border via private sales.

💰 Market Values (2025)

Category   Typical Value (CAD)
As-Issued К (Laminated)   $1,500 – $2,000+
As-Issued К (Hardwood)   $2,000 – $2,800+
Bringback w/ papers   $2,500 – $3,000+
Refurb Matching (Laminated)   $600 – $900
Refurb Mismatched/Painted   $400 – $600

   •   A hardwood-stock 1958 “К” rifle with capture papers sold for $2,800 CAD in 2024 (Gunpost Archive #44721).
   •   Typical CAI/CJA-imported laminate refurbs plateau at $600–$800 CAD due to saturation (CGN EE, Jan 2025).

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🧠 Authentication Tips for Collectors

To verify a true “as-issued” 1958 K-series rifle:
   •   ✅ No import marks (common in U.S.-origin rifles).
   •   ✅ Blued finish with visible barrel annealing.
   •   ✅ Consistent serial fonts across bolt, receiver, stock, trigger group, dust cover.
   •   ✅ No signs of disassembly (check screw staking, gas tube alignment).
   •   ✅ Tula star proof on chamber.
   •   ✅ Stock shows grain, not shellac gloss.

⚠️ Investor Warning: Many heavily refurbished K-series rifles are being misrepresented as “original”. Always request high-resolution photos of:
   •   Bolt and trigger group serials
   •   Muzzle crown
   •   Stock tang
   •   Rear sight base and bayonet lug

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🌍 Provenance: Bringbacks & Border-Crossers

Some of the most valuable 1958 rifles in Canada were:
   •   Vietnam War bringbacks (U.S. GI returns) — typically unmarked and non-refurbished, but documentation is key.
   •   Rifles without paperwork often sell at 20–30% lower than documented bringbacks.
   •   U.S. private imports from the 1980s–90s — often cleaner and more original than Canadian bulk imports.

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📚 Sources & Verification Tools
   •   📖 The SKS Carbine – Joe Poyer (2022)
   •   📖 Soviet Small Arms of the Cold War – R. Edwards (2021)
   •   🗂️ Tula State Museum Archives (digitized, 2023)
   •   🗂️ Library and Archives Canada (import records via FOIA)
   •   💬 SKS-Files.com – Letter Series Registry (2023–2025)
   •   💬 CanadianGunNutz “SKS Collector’s Thread” (2024–2025)
   •   🔍 SovietSKS.com – Metallurgy & Markings Guide
   •   🔍 Reddit r/CanadaGuns – Verified crate finds & auction data

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🎯 Final Notes for Collectors
   •   The 1958 “К” Letter Series is considered the pinnacle of Soviet SKS collecting due to its rarity, transitional features, and end-of-production status.
   •   Prioritize originality: Hardwood-stocked, non-refurbished rifles with full matching serials are the top-tier investment-grade specimens.
   •   Beware of inflated listings. Refurbs are still excellent shooters but should be priced accordingly.

Do we know production numbers? I’m curious how it stacks up.

How rare is a non refurb K?

How does it stack up to and unissued Izhevsk or a 49?