GB listings for all of 2015 - Albanian

[running-man]

So I  have finally gotten off my rear and started to crunch numbers for the entirety of 2015 Gunbroker sales.  The results for the Albys are interesting to say the least.

In 2015, the average Albanian cost you ~$560, provided that you could even find them as a total of 33 were sold from March through December.  Extrapolating out, this would have put us at around 3.3 per month or ~40 carbines for an entire calendar year changing hands via Gunbroker.  Certainly not a huge pool of sellers out there looking to move their Albys for sure.  Not surprisingly, the 'rare' years of low production have far fewer guns showing up with only 1 example popping up from years '67, '76, & '77 and a big fat 0 from 1979.  There is a clear drop off of around $150 between an avg. 'as-issued' gun and a one that is clearly refurbished.  I didn't expect to see such a large price differential, but there you go; buyers are most certainly looking for originality and it appears they will pay $150 more for it. 



What's more interesting is that now I can chart the entirety of 2015 based on per month sales.  With the Albys, there is a clear upward trend from start to finish with a bit of a mid-year peak in July that was quickly surpassed in November (we'd call that a bull run if this was the stock market).  According to the slope of the trendline, from start to finish through the year, Albys gained an avg. of ~$17 per month.  This is a pretty good price appreciation and corresponds to an increase in value of a typical gun of of an amazing 37% from March to December, ending up at a calculated avg. price of $630 in December (December avg. was really $600 as there was only a single gun sold).  Admittedly, my linear trendline fit is not great and additional data would most certainly flatten out the curve a bit, but it was interesting to see that the perceived price rise in Albys is a real phenomenon and not just a figment of my imagination.

[Phosphorus32]

Awesome stuff...more quality SKS sales data unavailable anywhere else   

A few more in the lower (fair/poor/uncertain) categories than the upper (good/very good) categories but still low numbers overall. Not surprised to see the upward trend but it's really useful to actually quantify it.

[Loose}{Cannon]

Love it...  Looks great!

[running-man]

A few more in the lower (fair/poor/uncertain) categories than the upper (good/very good) categories but still low numbers overall. Not surprised to see the upward trend but it's really useful to actually quantify it.

I figured you'd like seeing the compiled data Jon.   

There are certainly many indications that Alby 561s were pretty consistently abused during use / storage and they tend towards the rougher side of the current condition spectrum.

[MEBears]

From looking at Gunbroker throughout the year I would have expected a lot more sold. Those "super rare" ones must have kept rolling over. With the low numbers available I'm surprised the very good as issued aren't selling higher.

[Power Surge]

From looking at Gunbroker throughout the year I would have expected a lot more sold. Those "super rare" ones must have kept rolling over. With the low numbers available I'm surprised the very good as issued aren't selling higher.

I see those same auctions you're talking about every single week. They have been listed FOREVER.

[firstchoice]

  Interesting information that you compile for us, RM! 33 Albanians total sold on GB for the 2015 year! Almost impossible to know how many were sold on all big auction sites, local auction sites, local gun shops, and gun shows. But the 33 on GB kinda indicates that not a lot are being traded.

  Thanks for taking the time and effort on these reports, RM! You guys that do these reports and break down the individual monthly sales into the correct categories and model identifications make this a heck of lot more interesting and useful. Thanks! 

firstchoice

[TEKMIRKO]

RM; has any Albanian SN data ever been compiled since 2015 postings?  I own three 1978 production year.  Last one I acquired was about 7 years ago. Its all matching on main parts but magazine is not numbered. Yooper sight is informative.  Do you know if anyone has contacted original importer?  I'm trying to get more conclusive information how many were actually imported to US and SN ranges.  Thanks, Martin

[Boris Badinov]

RM; has any Albanian SN data ever been compiled since 2015 postings?  I own three 1978 production year.  Last one I acquired was about 7 years ago. Its all matching on main parts but magazine is not numbered. Yooper sight is informative.  Do you know if anyone has contacted original importer?  I'm trying to get more conclusive information how many were actually imported to US and SN ranges.  Thanks, Martin

SteveK [Steve Kehaya] is a forum member on gunboards.com. He was directly involved with selecting the Albanian-made sks's -- all of them, iirc. If anyone can provide a quantity for Albanian-made carbines imported to the US, it will be him:

See the second paragraph here:
https://forums.gunboards.com/showthread.php?1034642-Any-Sks%92s-coming-in-country-soon&p=9265677#post9265677

[running-man]

RM; has any Albanian SN data ever been compiled since 2015 postings?  I own three 1978 production year.  Last one I acquired was about 7 years ago. Its all matching on main parts but magazine is not numbered. Yooper sight is informative.  Do you know if anyone has contacted original importer?  I'm trying to get more conclusive information how many were actually imported to US and SN ranges.  Thanks, Martin

I hadn't seen this one, sorry about the late reply.  I have not seen any new data like this compiled since these GB listings ended.  They were simply too time consuming for me to keep up with.  One resource you might look up is AMX's (George Stragand's) "gunstockmarket" @ http://www.georgestragand.com/gunstockmarket/  His algorithms do a decent job of separating nationalities out.  You can get a current avg. there, though w/o looking through the listings it's hard to say how accurate the number is or what condition guns its measuring. 

Albys were still being sold at retail as late as 2007 as I remember seeing a very small batch pop up and thought to myself "That's something I haven't seen in a while".  Whether that was a new import, or simply the resale of a cache squirreled away by the original importer I have no idea.  I do know that I've only ever seen the TGI import stamp on an Albanian (this jives well with what BB posted about Steve Keyaha's experiences while in-country though I always assumed he was contracted with CAI and not TGI.  Maybe he switched between the two at some point between the early 2000's and 2012).  Maybe there are other importers, but because of the low # of these they just haven't turned up.     Hard to say.

[TEKMIRKO]

RM; thanks for your response.  Reason I asked this question who actually imported Albanians, is that tracking import markings on Alby SKSs, I only come across TG markings.  I understand TG Knox TN is no longer in business. So next question would be , who retained import data (BATF form 6)?  It would be interesting to find out if authors of SKS books have actually been able to compile such data from BATF?  Or, just possibly that information is purposely being withheld. There has to be some plausible rationale to explain this mystery.  I understand gun manufacturers have to report their annual production to BATF which appears in Blue Book of gun values, but why import information is such a secret?   

[running-man]

I suspect that the lack of info is a combination of people being a bit lazy and not pursuing BATF records (via FOIA or just plain calling and asking) as well as the importers themselves being tight lipped off their sources. Importers generally don’t give away information on sources because of the possibility of it affecting future business with those sources down the road (not giving up their honey hole).

Dealing with BATF is somewhat intimidating so i guess lazy isn’t necessarily the correct word to use, and there is something to be said for not wanting to stick your head out of the prairie dog hole too. The bottom line is i bet many never even think they might be able to get information such as this from BATF. 

[firstchoice]

RM; thanks for your response.  Reason I asked this question who actually imported Albanians, is that tracking import markings on Alby SKSs, I only come across TG markings.  I understand TG Knox TN is no longer in business. So next question would be , who retained import data (BATF form 6)?  It would be interesting to find out if authors of SKS books have actually been able to compile such data from BATF?  Or, just possibly that information is purposely being withheld. There has to be some plausible rationale to explain this mystery.  I understand gun manufacturers have to report their annual production to BATF which appears in Blue Book of gun values, but why import information is such a secret?

That was something that always bugged me, too. Why is it such a secret, or more difficult of a task to compile that data on import numbers, more than what I'm willing or able to take on? I know that someone has to have the numbers, somewhere. BATFE wouldn't NOT want to know how many guns of what type and model are coming into the country. I've wondered if any of it was simply political in nature? Libs wouldn't want to hear that "X-amount of "this type of surplus/ex-military weapons were brought into the country this year". Or, pro-gun folks might not want it to be expounded on for fear of fear mongering itself. It's really hard to say why for so many reasons. A lot of people in the chain of importing and paper shuffling. It may be a simple thing like nobody ever set it up to track imports in a spreadsheet-type way. It seems like BATFE would be the central data base for all of it but we know how government can be totally screwed up and disjointed when it comes to their bureaucracy.

I suspect that the lack of info is a combination of people being a bit lazy and not pursuing BATF records (via FOIA or just plain calling and asking) as well as the importers themselves being tight lipped off their sources. Importers generally don’t give away information on sources because of the possibility of it affecting future business with those sources down the road (not giving up their honey hole).

Dealing with BATF is somewhat intimidating so i guess lazy isn’t necessarily the correct word to use, and there is something to be said for not wanting to stick your head out of the prairie dog hole too. The bottom line is i bet many never even think they might be able to get information such as this from BATF. 

I had asked similar questions before and always heard the same basic answer. It can't be done. No use in trying. So, I never tried. My own fault for never attempting. Admittedly, I've never filed a FOIA so that was my biggest excuse. And then there is the giant government machine that's a bit intimidating. Not that it should be. It just is. They certainly don't make it easy or user friendly to start a info quest.

I hope it's just a matter of someone hasn't asked the right people, the right questions, yet.

firstchoice